Americans have lost their political theory of mind

Published Nov 06 2020 at 10:23 PM GMT

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For most of this presidential election season, I studiously avoided predicting its outcome.
I knew, of course, the polls showed Democratic nominee Joe Biden well in the lead, but I also thought high expectations from both sides were wildly unrealistic.
When friends and family asked me to prognosticate, my answer was always very tentative, more caveat than claim.
Some of that caution was an after-effect of 2016, when I, like so many in the chattering class, assumed President Trump would lose.